Experimental browser for the Atmosphere
Interestingly, models follow a very similar trajectory to what the true Bayesian posterior should look like with the same amount of evidence! When we prompt for coin flips from a 60% heads-biased coin but give it evidence the follows 70% heads, models converge to the latter.
Mar 10, 2025, 5:32 PM
{
"text": "Interestingly, models follow a very similar trajectory to what the true Bayesian posterior should look like with the same amount of evidence! When we prompt for coin flips from a 60% heads-biased coin but give it evidence the follows 70% heads, models converge to the latter.",
"$type": "app.bsky.feed.post",
"embed": {
"$type": "app.bsky.embed.video",
"video": {
"$type": "blob",
"ref": {
"$link": "bafkreibyrqalvitfotqde3n522eb6zmlahce7gucfickdsncb7rxacl7ni"
},
"mimeType": "video/mp4",
"size": 202068
},
"aspectRatio": {
"width": 1200,
"height": 900
}
},
"langs": [
"en"
],
"reply": {
"root": {
"cid": "bafyreibruexiplkhedteqeygtiulhx6zexuny5qsjryw7ypfpv5gpe7epe",
"uri": "at://did:plc:5ugfdqftlt7isp4lvn5hykb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lk23gy6bd22p"
},
"parent": {
"cid": "bafyreicdxvgc7knkcsv5ewfbz6tdqr47v4l7rc7k27rkv4bw4jh52eenmi",
"uri": "at://did:plc:5ugfdqftlt7isp4lvn5hykb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lk23gzng4c2p"
}
},
"createdAt": "2025-03-10T17:32:06.391Z"
}