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{
  "uri": "at://did:plc:cn54gi4w3anugyfn4czrrdw3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lo5fuj7lhc2m",
  "cid": "bafyreiheypayizinoeeo7mis5uxu543o22m7dj6seakzd5lh5gz6n5b7yy",
  "value": {
    "text": "On the assumptions that (1) judges can't serve on special panel two months in a row; (2) senior judges can't serve on special panel; (3) February special panel was Katsas, Childs, Pan, I think the probability is 0.3%.\n\n(3c2*5)/(8c3) * (6/(8c3))^2 = 0.003",
    "$type": "app.bsky.feed.post",
    "langs": [
      "en"
    ],
    "reply": {
      "root": {
        "cid": "bafyreify2ahf4jsfe64etsn7jq3cvjycut2blp3553zabwuaiap2c4zjxq",
        "uri": "at://did:plc:e6n7jxtu2qrhwvp3j6ib6sq6/app.bsky.feed.post/3lo5e7qhrzc2t"
      },
      "parent": {
        "cid": "bafyreige2wnsy7eom5iy7fipunu4fo4vt72rd4thprmp3gxh63niwzkcvy",
        "uri": "at://did:plc:cn54gi4w3anugyfn4czrrdw3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lo5ewhbzos2r"
      }
    },
    "createdAt": "2025-05-01T22:57:23.609Z"
  }
}