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          "alt": "While Reform gained seats in many Labour areas of the country, there is the risk we assume that Labour 'places' tell us what Labour 'voters' were doing, something that's known as the\n'ecological fallacy' - a real challenge in reading elections.\nIn the general election last year, Reform gained votes largely at the expense of the Conservatives, with over 70% of their 2024 voters coming from 2019 Conservatives. This was a big help to Labour in achieving their large majority and 411 MPs, lowering the thresholds for them to take seats from the Conservatives.\nIn the 2025 English local elections, the Conservative seat tally and Labour's seat tally both went down, which was all the worse for Labour given that this compounded their losses in 2021 (and before that too). However, this does not necessarily mean that Reform were taking large proportions of Labour voters.",
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          "alt": "These results could as easily be explained by Labour voters staying at home or voting for a party within the same 'party bloc' (a left-liberal party). This would be consistent with observations from the British Election Study (BES). Since 2016, voters have coalesced into a\n'Remain-left-liberal bloc' and a 'Leave-right-socially conservative bloc'. This bloc-based alignment was especially in evidence in the high-fragmentation 2024 election.\nVoters are still more likely to be switching within blocs than between them, and Reform is still very likely taking most voters from the right. Additionally, we cannot know whether they are tapping into recent non-voters, although there are certainly more given the low turnout in 2024. Labour may, as it long has, have a problem mobilising its voters, but this mobilisation should be more achievable at a\ngeneral election.",
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    "createdAt": "2025-05-06T12:20:55.022Z"
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