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    "text": "➡️ In an EU Legacy4LIFE report I looked specifically at \"Agricultural Methane in Irish Climate Action\".\n⏩ 'Poor presentation of GWP* analysis has enabled scientific & public confusion'. nb: AR6 WGIII GWP* is better.\n3/4\nwww.antaisce.org/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=340fe15d-df75-45e9-86ba-341762616638",
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          "alt": "Price, Paul R.\n ‘Agricultural Methane in Irish Climate Action: Greenhouse Gas Metrics, Methane Mitigation, and Related Quantification of Livestock Numbers’.\nLegacy4LIFE, May 2024. \nwww.antaisce.org/Handlers/Download.ashx?IDMF=340fe15d-df75-45e9-86ba-341762616638.\n\nCover page:\n\nAgricultural Methane in Irish Climate Action:  greenhouse gas metrics, methane mitigation,  and quantification of livestock numbers  An Taisce  Legacy4LIFE Programme  Task 2.2 Report  May 2024  Report by Paul R Price",
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          "alt": "Executive Summary\nRelevant text:\n\n\"In addition to radical reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, substantial, early and sustained cuts in CH4 emissions are required from all anthropogenic sources (agricultural, fossil, and waste) to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal, led by nations with high emissions and greater capacity to act. Due its EU-outlier imbalance to intensive “grass-fed” milk and livestock production, Ireland’s per capita methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are the highest in Europe. Within Ireland, agriculture is responsible for 95% of CH4 emissions and 92% of N2O emissions.\n\nThe GWP100 GHG equivalence metric, used to aggregate CO2e tonnage emissions in national reporting to the UNFCCC, will remain in use beyond 2030. Recent technical advice from the UNFCCC does allow for supplemental reporting by Parties using methods such as GWP*, which estimates CH4 “additional” warming relative to a base year. In this report, using GWP*, Ireland’s agricultural sector is found to be the joint largest contributor to total additional warming since 1990 of any EU Member State, primarily due to the policy-supported 61% increase in dairy CH4 since 2010 – contrary to climate commitments. The increased CH4emissions from Irish agriculture equate to one-off emission of 1,400 MtCO2, so deep reduction in Ireland’s agricultural annual CH4 emissions is a essential to limit and reduce overshoot of an equitable Paris-aligned national goal.  Policy and measures have abjectly failed to regulate GHG-intensive production, thereby delaying agri-food transition. Assuming the current model of high input, CH4-intensive, grass-based milk and livestock production continues, this report advises urgent adoption of a precautionary mitigation approach.\"",
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          "alt": "\"Poor presentation of GWP* analysis has enabled scientific and public confusion  Net zero annual CO2we from GWP* does not equate to Paris alignment \nMisleadingly, multiple scientific, grey-literature and public-facing documents using GWP* analysis have wrongly equated the potential to stabilise CH4 source warming impact (through a sustained small reduction in annual CH4 emissions), with achieving “net zero” from CH4 or agriculture sector emissions. Or, also misleadingly, in agricultural mitigation presentations a slightly increased rate of CH4 reductions is calculated using climate models or GWP* and is stated to achieve a notional offsetting of ongoing N2O and CO2 emissions. It should be obvious that these GWP* presentations are incorrect for two crucial reasons:\n\n(1) Reaching “net zero” annual emissions – also called “no additional warming” or “temperature neutrality” – will almost certainly be reached globally or by high emitting nations only in some (often unquantified) overshoot of the Paris temperature goal – on a global basis or on a fairshare national (UNFCCC Party) basis for “developed nations such as Ireland. If Ireland adopted a temperature neutrality end-goal for climate action this would therefore violate the CBDR-RC requirement for equitable implementation in the Paris Agreement Article 2 goal.\n\n(2) Ill-defined “net zero” targets have become common in public advisory assertions by sectoral actors and individual businesses. Even in research studies and scientific papers, sectoral or corporate “net zero” policy targets are sometimes stated as being “Paris-aligned”. The fatal problem with such assertions is that the Paris Agreement does not mention sectors or corporate actors at all. \"\n",
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          "alt": "Unclear scientific representations of GWP* have enabled mitigation confusion  \nA particularly problematic reference relating to CH4 mitigation has been the inclusion of the following confusing paragraph in the AR6 WGI report’s Chapter 7 on GHG metric usage, which states: \n\n[Quote from IPCC AR6 WGI ,2023a,p.1016] \n\nUnfortunately, many public-facing documents and even scientific researchers are continuing to misinterpret and misapply the above AR6 WGI Ch. 7 quote. For example, text under the heading The Road Map for Agriculture, in the recent Teagasc Climate Action Strategy 2022-2030 (Teagasc, 2022), states that ‘using GWP* in a herd with stable CH4 emissions will show a much lower warming effect coming from livestock’. However, this fails to make clear that this only refers to the long-term warming effect from livestock CH4, which is about a quarter of the GWP100 value, but the statement fails to include the large marginal warming due to current and future CH4 that could be reduced by mitigation policy. Contrary to the implication of this Teagasc statement, and similar ones from DAFM, GWP* does not represent a new climate science understanding of methane behaviour, it merely provides a simple method to approximate the additional warming from changes in annual CH4 flow over time, but fails to show the substantial marginal warming sustained by ongoing CH4 emissions.  Contrary to the apparent meaning of the quoted IPCC WGI sentence and the resultant misinterpretation by Teagasc, in fact there is no difference in overall system warming impact between new and existing sources that have the same marginal level of stable annual CH4 emissions from their establishment.",
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    "createdAt": "2025-04-18T08:10:57.673Z"
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